Abstract
The rice production in Heilongjian Province, China, has been dramatically increased since the mid 1980s. Its production reached over ten million metric tons in rough rice base and about a quarter of the Japonica rice produced in China in 2000. This rapid increase of rice production was realized by the diffusion of new rice growing technology which was transferred from Japan in the mid 1980s and public or private investments for the expansion of paddy field associated with abundant flat fertile lands, good summer weather conditions and high profitability for rice growing farmers.
In this study not only economic conditions but also natural resources such as weather, land and water resources were investigated in order to predict future rice production in Heilongjiang Province. The estimated rice supply elasticities of price are relatively high, which indicates that rice production in Heilongjiang Province promptly responded to changes in market conditions. The estimated weather productivity index of rice in most areas is also relatively high, which indicates good weather conditions to realize high rice yields. However, it is estimated that the rice planting area in Heilongjiang Province has almost reached to its peak mainly due to the constraints of water resources associated with low precipitation and the limited developable paddy land resources for sustainable paddy cultivation.
