Wholesale Market Responses to Supply Chain Shocks: A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Seafood Products Amidst COVID-19 and Toyosu Relocation

Abstract

This study analyzes the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the relocation of Tokyo’s Wholesale Market from Tsukiji to Toyosu in 2018 on arrivals’ volume variability across four species and eight products. Using a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model, it finds varying effects on different tuna commodities. While popular fish arrivals stabilized after shocks, high-end fish showed inconsistent trends. The conditional correlation between fresh produce decreased post-relocation and during emergencies but recovered later. Overall, the study suggests mixed effects of exogenous shocks on Japan’s tuna shipments without major disruptions in the food supply chain.