Functions of Rural Communities Weakened by Depopulation and Aging

Dynamic Statistical Analysis and Estimation of Future of Rural Communities

Abstract

The number of households in rural communities has been witnessing a decline from the year 2000, whereas the number of small rural communities has been increasing rapidly. This trend has contributed to the weakening of the functions and activities of rural communities, and is especially remarkable in mountainous farming areas.
A very small number of rural communities had disappeared between 1990 and 2010. Using cohort analysis, it is predicted that the number of “rural communities in danger of disappearance“ would increase from approximately 3,000 communities in 2010 to approximately 13,000 communities in 2050. Moreover, it is predicted that one-fourth or more of these rural communities are those in mountainous farming areas.
The results indicate that if nothing is done now, many rural communities will not be able to continue various community-based activities in the near future.