抄録
Parametric simulation models are developed for structural analysis of voting behaviors in public referendum. By decomposing the residents into eight groups, a mechanism is established to construct transition probability matrices defined on three states (0: Undecided; 1: YES; 2: NO) where individuals in one group have a common transition probability matrix but such matrices differ across different groups, thereby capturing behavioral patterns of the residents in forming their individual opinions toward the voting date. The underlying parameter values are identified in such a way that the voting results of eight real cases in Japan can be reproduced. The validity is tested through a mock public referendum. The parametric simulation approach proposed in this paper enables one to devise a strategy concerning how to transform the formation of the eight residential groups so as to achieve a target voting result.
