90年総選挙: 有権者の政治選択に関する計量分析「自・社二極体制」を生んだ第3の争点“不公平感”の拡大

抄録

The general election held on 18 February resulted in the share of victory of both LDP (Liberal-Democratic Party) and JSP (Japan Socialist Party), Three other opposition parties -the Clean Government Party (Komeito), the Japan Communist Party (JCP), and Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) have lost their seats.
I predicted before the election that Japan politics in 1990's will start in two dominant party systems composed by LDP and JSP, that is called“Two pollar party systems”in Japan.
Why did the LDP win so massively and the JSP so sharply increase its seats, simul-taneously?
The key resolving this question exists in two major issues-one is concerned with the introduction of 3-percent consumption tax and the other in concerned with the choice of economical regimes. But how was the degree of the two major issues critical for the elec-torates?
I assume that latent big issue affecting the two issues has directly influenced the distri-bution of seats.
Then, what is the third issue?
So, measuring the degree of effectiveness of these issues by using the method of clus-ter analysis, I would make clear that the third issue is enlargement of consciousness of unequality.
We understand a big controversy in Japan now is the rapidly increasing property differ-entials between the haves and have nots.
My purpose of this article is to analyze the fundemental structure of voting behavior in 1990's.
Using data is the result of the survey of personal interviews of about 3000 randomly sampled eligible voters before the general election.