クズネツ循環再論 : グローバル資本主義の景気循環

抄録

Kuznets cycle is usually discussed related to the construction and the specific periodicity. But the studies in 1950s and 60s focused on the wider perspective, i.e. the investment shift between the construction and others, the shift between domestic and foreign investments, and the inverse correlation between American and British construction, which were thought to indicate the "Atlantic Economy". This paper revisits the studies on Kuznets cycle with the wider perspective. Section I describes "dynamic innovation-adjustment process" theory by Rostow, "investment shift" by Kuznets and Abramovitz, "pseudo-Juglar" hypothesis by Coppock, counter-cyclicality of housing by Habakkuk and "Atlantic Economy" theory by Thomas. These theories and hypotheses are logically rearranged, and the Kuznets cycle is characterized as the business cycle in global capitalism. Section II examines whether these theories and hypotheses are judged favorably by the data before World War I. The result is that though the investment shift theory cannot be wholly applied to the analysis in each country, Atlantic Economy theory is persuasive in the analysis of the international relation. Section III investigates the possibility that the Kuznets cycle revives in the era of Neo-liberalism after 1980s. The analyses present the shift between the industrial and the housing investments in the 2001 recession in the US, the switch of assets by the commercial banks in the US between the industry and the housing, and the shift of domestic investment boom between the emerging countries and the US. Finally, "Neo-liberalism" is characterized as the historical economic structure enabling the investment shift and causing Kuznets cycle. This paper focuses on the validity of the Kuznets cycle as a framework rather than as a specific periodicity or a cycle of construction activity. Different from Juglar cycle considering each cycle as independent, Kuznets cycle analyzes the interaction between temporally and spatially different cycles. In one country, the cycles with different characters alternates temporally through investment shift. Internationally, firstly, the spatial interaction is observed in the complementary relation between countries with prosperity led by domestic investment boom and countries with prosperity led by export. Secondly, temporal interaction is observed in the shift of domestic investment booms from countries to others.