構造VARモデルによる日本経済の資本蓄積,所得分配,負債の動態分析 : ポスト・ケインジアン・パースペクティブ

抄録

This article empirically investigates the dynamic relationships among income distribution, debt ratio, and capital accumulation in the Japanese economy post the 1990s. Recently, post-Keynesians have been progressively presenting empirical analyses. However, of these, only a few time series analyses focus on the financial aspects of the Japanese economy. This article endeavors to examine the impact of both distributional as well as financial factors on capital accumulation using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. First, a post-Keynesian model that can incorporate incorporate income distribution, debt ratio, and capital accumulation is established. Second, on the basis of this model, contemporaneous links among the three variables are identified in the VAR model, and the dynamic relationships among these three variables are established. Finally, the characteristics of the Japanese economy's income distribution-capital accumulation as well as the debt-capital accumulation patterns post the 1990s are interpreted using innovation accounting. The following results are obtained in this article: The accumulated impulse response functions of the structural VAR indicate that profit share sustains capital accumulation and a high debt ratio restrains it. In other words, the income distribution- capital accumulation pattern of the Japanese economy over the past 20 years has been a profitled one, and the debt-capital accumulation pattern over the same period has been a debt-burdened one. Although income distribution explains the fluctuations in capital accumulation more effectively in the short run, the same is explained more effectively by the debt ratio in the long run. According to these results, the debt ratio that remained at high levels from the bubble burst to the end of the 1990s may have prevented the active accumulation of capital. Moreover, an increase in the wage share around the same period may have contributed to the stagnation of investments. On the contrary, subsequent improvements in the profit share and equity ratios of firms, particularly since 2002, may have contributed to the recovery of the capital accumulation levels.