Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modeling, impact prediction and adaptation

Abstract

Since the projection of global warming emerged in 1980s with the potential of laying enormous impacts on agriculture and food security of the world, we have conducted experimental and modeling studies for clarifying its effects on rice production in Asia and for developing adaptive rice production technologies. On the basis of measurement of rice responses to climate and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]), the dynamic process model named SIMRIW was developed to predict global warming effects on irrigated rice. The model predicted differential regional effects of the projected global warming by doubling [CO₂] on the rice yield over Asia, and indicated that high tolerance to heat-induced spikelet sterility and high yield potential under elevated [CO₂] are the two important characteristics required for rice genotypes adaptive to global warming environment. Further, genetic traits associated with these characteristics and their genetic resources for breeding adaptive genotypes were identified from diverse rice germplasms. This article reviews our initiative studies in the light of the recent studies, and points out further research that is needed for better understanding and overcoming of this unprecedentedly large problem.