Scenarios and branch points to future machine intelligence

Abstract

We discuss scenarios and branch points to four major possible consequences regarding future machine intelligence; 1) the Singleton scenario where the first and single super-intelligence acquires a decisive strategic advantage, 2) the Multipolar scenario where the singleton scenario is not technically denied but political power-game or other factors in human society or game theory between intelligent agents inhibit a single agent to acquire a decisive strategic advantage, 3) the Ecological scenario where the singleton scenario is technically denied and many intelligent autonomous agents operate in the manner where they are mutually dependent and practically unstoppable, and 4) the Upper-bound scenario where cognitive abilities that can be achieved by human-designed intelligent agents or their descendants are inherently limited to the sub-human level.