A new evaluation metric and issue of uplift modeling for coupon marketing

Abstract

What is the correct evaluation of Uplift Modeling in coupon marketing? Recently, Uplift Modeling receives attention for improving the cost-effectiveness of coupon marketing. However, the measures, the Qini Curve and Coefficient, utilized in Uplift Modeling, do not align with the structure of cost-effectiveness in coupon marketing. In this paper, we demonstrate examples that the Qini does not measure the cost-effectiveness correctly. Moreover, we also propose a measures "Sure Things Curve" and "Sure Things Coefficient" that considers cost-effectiveness in coupon marketing.