Abstract
This paper proposes a technique to set occurring probability of buried rupture earthquakes. It is required for probabilistic hazard estimation. As the earthquake magnitude is getting larger, the rupture area and the dislocation of the fault is getting larger following the self-similar scaling law. Estimated surface deformation due to the fault dislocation is also getting larger according to earthquake magnitude. Setting a threshold of surface deformation whether it is able to be or not to be detected, we can evaluate probability of a surface rupture earthquake at a given magnitude. Proposing moderate threshold of the surface deformation is a main aim of this paper. After introducing earthquake occurrence probability derived from local seismicity, we can evaluate occurring probability of a buried earthquake. The technique proposed in this paper will contribute for accurate estimation of earthquake hazard with treating earthquakes due to buried faults and earthquakes due to active faults separately.
