Abstract
Occurrence probability of M-7 class earthquake that occur east off Aomori prefecture is said to be about 90% during the following thirty years from January 2007. This is the second highest value in Japan. Thus, the authors estimate seismic intensities by such kind of earthquake. The hypothetical event is located on the northern asperity of the 1968 Tokachi-Oki earthquake. Empirical attenuation relation and amplification factors those are proposed by one of the authors are used to estimate instrumental seismic intensities. At first, applicability of this procedure is shown by the 1994 Sanriku Haruka Oki earthquake then estimated values are discussed. For the 1994 Sanriku Haruka Oki earthquake, differences between estimated and observed seismic intensities are 0.5 among 80 % stations. Additionally, even the largest difference is 1.0. For the hypothetical one, seismic intensities are 6- at Hachinohe city and Misawa city
