Abstract
In this paper, we propose a time series model for hourly fluctuation of supplied water consumption. This model gives us basic information about water distribution control. First, after analysis of the significant characteristics of the hourly fluctuation, we find that it has two component parts. One of them is the cyclic component, which regularly makes typical fluctuated patterns with a l-day cycle. The other is the deviational component, which deviates complexly and randomly from the typical patterns of the cyclic component. Second, we make an hourly fluctuation model, which is based on the two components mentioned above. We make the cyclic and deviational component models by applying the finite Fourier series and multiple ARIMA models respectively, and combine them to form an hourly fluctuation model. Third, we show a case study in Seoul City, and use this proposed model to estimate the supplied water consumption. From the results of this case study, we can obtain an effective model to describe the hourly fluctuation of supplied water consumption. Our proposed model is useful for water distribution control planning.
