Abstract
To evaluate vulnerability of cereal transportation and cereal stocks estimated from the current land use and demand-supply on cereal in China, two types of numerical models (non-market type and market type) were developed and applied to this topic. Input data were 20km-cell base published by Otsubo (1999). Target year was around 1995. In case of no cereal transportation, severe cereal shortage appeared in urban regions. In the non-market type model, cereal was transported from grid-cells with positive cereal stocks to grid-cells with negative cereal stocks in proportion to the ratio of their GDP. In the market type model, each grid cell absorbed cereal from surrounding cells in proportion to its GDP (economic potential). In the non-market type model, regional imbalances of cereal stocks were decreased by the cereal transportation. However, the result in the market type model showed some risk of decreasing cereal stocks in hinterlands of productive regions and in urban regions far from productive regions, especially coastal zone in the south China, because a quick accumulation of cereal in the coastal municipalities enlarged such regional imbalances.
