Abstract
To mitigate climate change, municipalities have began to develop long term scenarios to achive low carbon society. However, municipalities face grater uncertainty and instability because of greater openness of socio-economic strucure.In this study, we developed a method for local low carbon society scenario with regarding of such openness of economy. A quantitative estimation tool to show quantitative future snapshot and to assess greenhouse gas emissions and its reduction potential of counter measures. We applied this method to Kyoto city in 2030, and identified counter measures to reduce its CO2 emissons 50% related to 1990. Among the measures categories, energy efficiency improvement of household and commercial sectors were found relatively large (15% and 18%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis was also conducted and it is showed that 10% increase/decrease of export leads 8.5% i ncrease/decrease of CO2 emissions.
