渇水の規模と発生確率を考慮した水資源確保対策の検討とその評価

博多湾流域を対象として

抄録

Abstract; In arid and semi-arid watersheds, water resources management is of importance to maintain water supply for water works, irrigation, industry, and so on. Because water shortage occurs stochastically, stochastic approaches are inevitable to estimate precipitation and storage in reservoirs and to estabilish countermeasures for water shortage. Requirements of the water resources management are minimizing cost and LCE, and maximizing user's benefit. Objectives of this study, in which the Hakata bay watershed is the area of interest, are to develop astochastic model on precipitation, to analyze annual precipitation distribution, to design precipitaion patterns on 10, 25, 50 and 100 return years, and to establish water supply alternatives for water shortage. We select water supply alternatives at each water shortage period as follows: First, reservoir storage is simulated by using a tank model, secondly, intakes from reservoirs are calculated, thirdly, water resource alternatives are selected, and finally countermeasures are determined at each water shortage. In conclusion, desalination or other alternative measures, in addition to utilizing groundwater, is inevitable to avoid water shortage in this watershed. Desalination, however, has demerits of high LCE and cost, so that neat technologies to obtain alternative water resources and toreduce water consumption are to be developed.