POSSIBILITY OF TYPHOON PREDICTION AFTER GLOBAL WARMING

Abstract

To predict the behavior of typhoon tracks and the frequency of typhoon formations after global warming from a climatological point. of view, the relations between these typhoon properties and SSTs are investigated. Objective classification method of typhoon tracks is developed for the description of complicated tracks.
Composite charts of typhoon tracks during El Niño/La Niña events show that formation points are located more southerly during El Niño events. The existence of the most suitable SST range for typhoon formations is suggested by the correlation analysis on the basis of monthly mean data. It is showed by lagged-correlation analysis between annual frequency of formations and monthly SST anomaly that positive anomaly of high SST area is related to many intensive typhoon formations.