PRE-PRINTS OF THE SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
Online ISSN : 1884-8400
ISSN-L : 1884-8400
STUDY ON EMPIRICAL EQUATIONS FOR LONG-TERM FORECASTS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
Shinji KANEKOSatoshi KOGANEMARUTohru MATSUMOTORyo FUJIKURAHidefumi IMURA
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JOURNAL FREE ACCESS

1996 Volume 4 Pages 227-233

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Abstract

Forecasting of the future situation of global environment is a difficult task due to complex interaction among a number of economic, social, and natural factors. This paper aims an analysis of the relationships between the factors regarding economic development and environment for the Asian region. It examines the empirical formulas obtained from the past temporal data series of 24 countries for the last 30 years. A simple model is developed toanalyze future trends on population and food balance based on a set of parameters obtained by the relationships. Regarding food balance, an insufficiency of food supply in some countries including China is expected become obvious in the next century due to the increasing demand for animal products resulting from income rise.

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© by Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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