抄録
Heretofore, models of residential energy consumption and commercial sectors were developed, and development trends of energy demand and CO2 emissions in residential and commercial sectors were examined for the four Asian mega-cities of Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai. In this paper, effects and sensitivity of strategies in consideration of fuel type factor, energy related appliance, housing and lifestyle factors was carried out by scenario approach for reduction of CO2 emission from energy consumption. Assessment results show that through improvement of factor synthesis, the CO2 emission in the residential sector in 2020 could be reduced by 37.0% in Beijing, 38.3% in Shanghai, 36.3% in Tokyo and 27.0% in Seoul, and the CO2 emission in the commercial sector could be reduced by 29.2% in Beijing, 34.4% in Shanghai, 29.4% in Tokyo and 29.2% in Seoul compared with the tendency case. Sensitivity analysis results show that there exist uncertainties in parameters and model building. For the former case, introduction rates of strategies were selected for main parameters, and effect on the final results was found as dissemination rate was lowered by 10%. For the later, effect on the final results was found as change was adjusted between the upper and lower limit of 95% confidence interval.
