Abstract
In developed countries including Japan, demands for durable goods, such as housing, infrastructure, and production capital, almost reach saturation, and growths of their demands become to slow down. This means demands for durable goods in the future are given as a function of stocks. Addition to that, a large amount of materials accumulated in durable goods is expected to generate a large amount of wastes when these goods reach the end of their lifetimes. So the estimation of stock is required to consider countermeasures to develop the dematerialization society. This research develops Material Stock and Flow Model, which describes the material stock and flow in the society to analyze the mechanism of changes in material stock and flow and socio-economic factors in Japan. The target material is iron, and final demand goods are categorized into four durable goods; machineries, buildings, civil engineering structures, and other industrial products. The model is developed by the econometric method using the past about 100 years' socio-economic data and iron physical data. The formulation is based on the concept of material balance of goods and sectors, and technological input-output relationship.
