Estimation of the Future River Flood and Inundation Risk Due to Climate Change

Analyses on Naka River and Kuji River in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan

Abstract

The changes in intensity and pattern of rain fall and sea-level rise are projected due to climate change. The risks of river floods and inundations may increase due to these effects of climate change. In this study, a method for estimating the future risks of river flood and inundation was developed based on a general numerical model, in which the future river flood discharge was calculated by a climate scenario using the transfer function method. It was applied in Naka and Kuji rivers areas in Ibaraki, Japan, and revealed that the maximum inundation area will not change much because rain fall will not change in these areas but the rate of inundation during the flood will accelerate.