抄録
Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumpution can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumpution of food, energy and timber on global environmental changes, and global population capacity are analyzed using a systemdynamics model deveroped in this reseach. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD conturies and the others. Used global land use date set is land cover map derived from satellite date, and potential distribution of arableland is estimated by the method of Cramer and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate date uch as precipitation and evapotransiration. In addition, impacts of carbon dioxide emisson from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. The results of the analysis for both BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global date on distribution of environmental variables and socioeconomic indices is left for further stidies.
