融雪流出予測における週間気象予報の利用について

抄録

This paper presents an attempt to apply the weekly weather forecast data for a snowmeltr unoff prediction. The basin is 1.0km² in area and elevation ranges from390 to 800m above sea level. The snowmelt model makes use of digital terrain data with 20m grid spacing. Energy balance components are calculated for each grid element taking topographic variations of solar radiation into account. In ordar to use the snowmelt model in the forecast situation, it is necessary to predict the meteorological data for any future time period. In this study, 1) the insolation is calculated by the forecasted percentage of sunshine, which is divided into 15 weather conditions; 2) and the temperature is calculated as a function of time elapsed. One week ahead forecasting results by the snowmelt runoff model using the weather forecast data are accurate enough for practical purpose.