PREDICTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL TRIGGERING SHALLOW LANDSLIDES

抄録

For an assessment of how hydrologic processes influence the location and timing of landslide or to assess how landslide risk might change in response to changed landuse pattern, some sort of mathematical model is needed, which can incorporate all triggering factors explicitly. Proposed landslide model explicitly analyzes the effect of high-intensity and short-duration rainfalls on development of pore water pressure. Richards equation is used to evaluate the pore waterpressure response to the changing rainfall pattern and attendant change in Safety Factor of the stability of a location. The numerical solution of the unsteady pore waterpressure is experimentally verified in lab. The model is able to predict the timing and location of the shallow landslides. It is used to simulate the landslides occurred in 1973/10/26 at the Takora basin located upstream of Kizu river basin. The result of model encourages for development of more generalized model in future incorporating more factors that influence landslide.