地球温暖化に伴う四国地方の洪水リスク評価に関する考察

抄録

The flood risk in Shikoku region caused by global warming is studied. By the analysis of past 100-yr daily precipitation, it's estimated that 100-yr annual maximum daily precipitation and the frequency of heavy precipitation record increased. About the future assessment, we use the output of the regional climate model RCM20 by Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency. The horizontal resolution of the model is about 20km and the model output is expected to be useful for the flood risk assessment of the future. First we confirmed the model output reproducibility by comparing the observed data with model output in 1981-2000. Subsequently we estimated the flood risk in 2081-2100 by using model output. According to the analysis, it's cleared that 100-yr annual maximum daily and 2days precipitation will increase.