MTシステムによる不動産価格の予測(2)

－TS法を使ったキャップレートの予測－

抄録

Caprate (capitalization rate) is not only an essential element for determining economic values of tenant-occupied buildings and their sites, but also an important index used for comparison with stocks, bonds, and other securities. In particular,for investors considering whether or not to invest in a property, a favorable or unfavorable caprate is a key decision factor, and estimating it has considerable significance for economic activity. A desirable method of estimating caprate is a comparison with sales data of similar properties, but in practice this method is rarely used. The reasons are the paucity of sales data, the impossibility of calculating net operating income, even if sales data can be collected,because total expenses are unknown, and the lack of knowledge of the differential rate, even if the net operating income can be calculated. The TS method,which can produce estimates from even a small amount of known data, was therefore experimentally applied to caprate estimation. Accurate estimates were obtained, indicating that caprate can be estimated by the TS method.