Factors Predicting Decline to “Frail” Status among the Urban Community-dwelling Elderly

Abstract

[Purpose] To investigate the factors contributing to decline to mentally and physically “frail” status after one year among the urban community-dwelling elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 384 urban community-dwelling elderly in a sample of 913, from which 121 subjects who were already “frail” were excluded, who could be followed for one year. [Methods] Based on the results of mental and physical examinations, multiple logistic regression analysis using the forced entry method was performed with “frail” status after one-year as the dependent variable, and each of the baseline mental and physical examination items as independent variables, with age and gender as covariates. [Results] After one-year, 42 subjects (11%) newly presented as “frail.” Gender, grip strength, the fall-risk index score, and gonalgia at baseline were identified as the independent factors predicting “frail” status. [Conclusion] The results suggest that, in addition to muscle strength, the fall-risk index score and gonalgia are important predictors of decline to “frail” status.