抄録
The paper describes a precise technique to compute the limit state exceedance probability of typical earth slopes and geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) slopes using a low-discrepancy sequence Monte Carlo (LDSMC) method and an importance sampling with low-discrepancy sequence Monte Carlo (ISLDSMC) method. The LDSMC and ISLDSMC methods can efficiently compute the accurate limit state exceedance probabilities of typical earth slopes and GRS slopes with a limited number of simulations. This study presents a practically useful nomogram of seismic deformation and limit state exceedance probability with variable slope heights, backfill soil properties, and geometries. A simple estimation of the limit state exceedance probability of the GRS slopes is given based on the results of the conventional deterministic analysis. The results of these analyses show that the LDSMC and ISLDSMC methods are practically useful, efficient, and accurate for the limit state exceedance probability calculation.
