Abstract
The use of analytical solution of consolidation equation for settlement prediction is not always effective since such conditions as an initial distribution of excess pore water pressure, drain length, final vertical strain of soils and the coefficient of consolidation are sometimes quite uncertain in practical engineering problems. For this reason, an observational settlement prediction is freshly presented. First, the linear ordinary differential equation derived is demonstrated to give a settlement-time relationship. After that, by using the difference form of the equation (an autoregressive equation), observational procedure of settlement prediction is proposed. Two kinds of practical methods are presented. One is a graphical method, the advantage of which is its simplicity. The other is the method based on the Bayesian inference of the non stationary stochastic process, which can give a predictive probability distribution of future settlement and then also provide a preliminary theory for reliability-based design of settlement problems.The proposed methodology is demonstrated to be also applicable for some other special problems including settlement due to drainage from sand piles.
