Abstract
The Japanese government has declared carbon neutrality in 2050 to create a decarbonized society and has set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 46% (compared to 2013) by 2030. To achieve this goal, the transportation sector, which accounts for 17.4% of greenhouse gases, requires the widespread use of next-generation vehicles, especially battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, BEV sales account for current new car sales at 1.4% (2022), which is extremely low. Therefore, in this study, we applied the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a SD model provided in Europe, to the Japanese automobile market, and modified the model. This model was then used to dynamically and quantitatively analyze the impact of the installation of charging stations on the dissemination of BEVs. As a result, if the charging stations supply business can be operated with subsidies, the number of charging stations in 2035 will be +19.5% compared to 2022, and the BEV penetration rate will be +21.8%. On the other hand, if it is difficult to operate the charging station supply business under the current subsidy policy and some operators withdraw, the number of charging stations in 2035 will be +17% compared to 2022, and the BEV penetration rate will be +20.0%.
https://ror.org/05jk51a88 
