Abstract
In the first place, the sum total of the takings of the Portuguese underwent the transition as follows. From the 1570's to the 1590's the sum total was approximately between 400 and 600 thousand cruzados yearly. In the 17th century, until the beginning of the 1630's it was from 500 thousand to a million and 500thousand cruzados. Afterwards until 1638, the last year of the trade, it came to a large sum of from two millions to two millions and 300 thousand taels. Second, the amount of the trade of raw silk, the principal merchandise of the Portuguese trade at Nagasaki, showed a slow and gentle decline with years, but the decrease was not so notable. The standard amount was a thousand and several hundred piculs yearly form beginning to end, and it increased and decreased approximately between 1000 and 2500 piculs, rising exceptionally to 3000or falling to 300 piculs. Comparing this amount of raw silk with the above mentioned sum total of the takings of the Portuguese, although the latter had been rising constantly with years and especially increased notably in the 1630's, the amount of the raw silk and the value of business of that merchandise did not show so much change. It seems that the rise of the sum total was caused by the increase of the other merchandises especially the silk fabrics. The Portuguese, until 1633, would have sold to the Japanese the greater part of the raw silk brought from Macao, by the pancada (wholesale) system, but after 1634 the amount of the raw silk sold by pancada underwent a complete change; only a little part of all the raw silk of the Portuguese came to kept for sale by that system. It seems that this change was the counter-measure from the side of the Portuguese against the new decision which the Edo Bakufu provided in the Edict of Seclusion (Sakoku) of 1633. Because it was ordered in this edict that the decision of the pancada price should be anterior to the dealings of all the merchandises other than white raw silk, and accordingly, the pancada price of the raw silk could have an influence on the prices of the other merchandises. Finally, the pancada price per picul of the white raw silk was about 150 taels in the 16 th century. It the 17th century, until 1620 it was approximately from 150 to 300 taels. From 1633 to 1638, it was between 215 and 315 taels. The price of the raw silk outside the pancada system fluctuated very widely. For example, from 1613 to 1620 it fluctuated between 100 and 500 taels. Therefore, it seems that one of the principal reasons why the Portuguese had adopted the pancada system from the early days of the trade with Japan was to evade influence of the fluctuation of the market conditions of the raw silk in Japan, at the time of the decision of the selling price of the raw silk.
