Risk Analysis of Biological Parameters by High Economic Growth and Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Abstract

　In this study, we first extracted cross-sectional growth data on height from the first year of elementary school to the final year of high school for the years from 1955 to 2015 in Fukushima Prefecture, based on body composition data for each prefecture published by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, in order to determine the status of physical growth during the years of high economic growth in Fukushima Prefecture following the Second World War. Cohorts for these temporal data were then established and reviewed, and a wavelet interpolation model was applied to these growth data in cohort fashion. The age at maximum peak velocity (MPV) of height was identified from the described velocity curve, and the temporal change trends were analyzed. Next, we applied the wavelet interpolation model to longitudinal growth data for height from the first year of elementary school until the final year of junior high school (grade 9) in regions where there was a confirmed effect from earthquake disasters, and identified the age at MPV of height for individual students. Evaluation criteria for level of physical maturity were created from the identified individual MPV age statistics, with the pre-earthquake evaluation criteria taken as the core of the physical catch-up model construction theory. Then, the basic theoretical background was explored to examine the question of whether physical catch-up occurred in a short period from the behavior of MPV age for height of the Great East Japan Earthquake that struck several years ago, and a risk analysis of biological parameters from earthquakes was conducted.