The Effect of Urbanization in Developing Countries on Carbon

Dioxide Emissions: Evaluation by Modifying the Edmonds-Reilly Model

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel consumption are regarded as the most important cause of global warming in the future and are usually related to population growth. However, another demographic phenomenon, urbanization, is also considered to be important and is expected to be particularly conspicuous in developing countries during the next few decades. The objectives of this study are to incorporate urbanization scenarios into the typical model for projecting CO₂ emissions, the Edmonds-Reilly model, and to evaluate the effect of urbanization in developing countries on CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Through the modification, urbanization scenarios are connected with changes in the production structure. The modified model projects plausible CO₂ emissions when standard scenarios are adopted. The sensitivity analyses imply that realistic variations of future population growth and future urbanization would have quantitatively similar effects on CO₂ emissions.