Abstract
National food requirements have been estimated covering 184 countries from 1990 to 2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for providing information help to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security. Projections are carried out for ninety-six food items in FAO' food balance sheets (FBS) so that the proportion of undernourished in total population may be below 2.5 % throughout the projection period. These estimations are nearly equivalent to supply for domestic utilization in FBS, which is comprised of utilization elements such as feed, seed, food manufacture, waste and final use. Consequently, world cereal requirements in SRES Al and B1 scenarios reach 3, 406 million tones and 3, 426 million tonnes in 2050 respectively and decrease to 2, 650 million tonnes in 2100. On the contrary, those in A2 and B2 scenarios continue to increase to 3, 908 million tones and 3, 740 million tonnes in 2050 and reach 6, 010 million tones and 4, 030 million tonnes in 2100. A number of today's food-insecure countries seem likely to have overcome their food access problems by 2030, with much of the remaining food security problem concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa due to low person's income levels and rapid increases in food requirements.
