Abstract
We model the mechanism of a Potentially Contaminated Site (PCS) becoming a Brownfield site in order to estimate the probability of a PCS becoming a Brownfield site (Brownfield probability) in Japan. We calculate this probability using unit land value, cleanup cost and acceptable burden ratio for land owner as a parameter and at each prefecture, for each type of industry and for each size of factory. As a result, Brownfield Probability in Tokyo prefecture is very low, from 0.02% to 5%. This is the lowest probability in Japan. However, average Brownfield probability of the 39 prefecture except metropolitan region of Tokyo, Osaka, Aichi, is very high. The probability of manufacturing 3 which has high probability of using contaminants, gas stand and dry cleaner reach 20% to 24%. There are about 260, 000 manufacturing3, gas stand and dry cleaner sites in these 39 prefectures in Japan. This means the number of the Brownfield sites will increase in these prefectures in the near future and the land owner of these sites are economically-influenced from Brownfield problem.
