抄録
Amount of potential resource and rate of recycling are the most important keys for sustainable development of mineral resources. Several production factors are competing each other to sustain the demand, which basically depend on population and economical environment.
Focusing on the properties of mineral resources, a long-term global model which describes the supply-demand structure of copper is developed in respect of recycling and substitution.
In this model, the production patterns and the effect of recycling to the supply are computed for over the next 150 years. The effect of substitution for copper is also simulated.
Under the assumptions of this global model, the primary supply of copper will not sustain the demand in the future. Sustainable supply for copper requires the enlargement of secondary supply by development of recycling technology.
