Abstract
It is commonly belived that a bilateral negotiation between two countries can reveal its whole content only after publication of the documents explained by the responsible officials, for it is difficult to procure data on a countory's internal motivation affecting the decision in the negotiation. Not denying this fact, however, we have attempted to show that a certain type of negotiation can be modeled on the basis of publicly available data. To get insight into the pattern of conflicts in this new era of oceanic territories, we have chosen the fishery negotiation between Japan and the Soviet Union. We have made the state space equation model in modern control theory based on the negotiation data 1957∼1976, and we have forecasted the result of negotiation 1977. The results shows that the model's predictive performance is remarkably good. We have identified the five majore structual components of the negotiation which characterize as the politics of decrementalism.
