Abstract
Events as those of technological innovation and change in political situations are unquantifiable and the structure of interactions among events is usually hardly identified. A dynamic cross impact method has been developed, which can envisage most likely multi-dimentional dynamic scenarios of those events. A ‘dynamic’ scenario here implies combination of events occuring as a time sequence. The static cross impact method, originally developed by Duperrin and Godet and modified by the authors constitutes an essential part of mathematical tools for the method.
The steps for construction of dynamic scenarios of the events are in the following. 1) Estimation of the first order probabilities, including conditional ones, of occurence of events by those who are expertised in the events concerned, 2) conversion of estimated probabilities into a set of first and second order probabilities by employing a two dimensional Markovian model, 3) modification of estimated low order probabilities by use of quadratic programming so as to have them satisfy necessary conditions as a probability set, and 4) derivation of most likely scenario(s) as a chain of reachable static scenarios.
Application of this method to the forecast of nuclear power technology demonstrates validity and, usefulness of this method.
