Online ISSN : 1349-6476
ISSN-L : 1349-6476
Selecting CMIP6-Based Future Climate Scenarios for Impact and Adaptation Studies
Hideo ShiogamaNoriko N. IshizakiNaota HanasakiKiyoshi TakahashiSeita EmoriRui ItoToshiyuki NakaegawaIzuru TakayabuYasuaki HijiokaYukari N. TakayabuRyosuke Shibuya
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Supplementary material

2021 Volume 17 Pages 57-62


Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.

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© The Author(s) 2021. This is an open access article published by the Meteorological Society of Japan under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.
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