Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) is a fully Open Access journal under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License. In order to rapidly publish papers as quickly as possible, SOLA aims to make a first decision within one month and a decision upon resubmission within a further month. A rapid review cycle is the first priority of SOLA as a rapid publication journal.
Recently, we have been making efforts to organize special editions to welcome submissions on specific topics. We published special editions on “Extreme Rainfall Events in 2017 and 2019” in 2019 and on “Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC)” in 2020. This year, the special edition on “Typhoons in 2018-2019” has been launched. A unique feature of these special editions is that they are organized jointly with Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. We are planning to issue another special edition this year in response to advance studies on extreme weather events that occurred last year. We hope that the readers would know the recent developments in research on specific topics dealt in those special editions.
The special editions encourage submissions on relevant topics. The number of submissions exceeded 100 last year. With the increasing tendency of the submissions, the impact factor provided by Clarivate Analytics last year was 1.632, which is a rapid growth from the previous year.
We hope that readers would be our next authors. SOLA welcomes submission from the international community in meteorology, atmospheric sciences, and the related fields.

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The Editorial Committee of Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) gives The SOLA Award to outstanding paper(s) published each year. I am pleased to announce that The SOLA Award in 2020 is going to be presented to the paper by Dr. Fumiaki Fujibe, entitled “Temperature anomaly in the Tokyo metropolitan area during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) self-restraint period” (Fujibe 2020).
In response to the rapid spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in spring 2020, human activities were strongly regulated and restricted in many parts of the world. The Japanese government set a nationwide self-restraint period from March to June in 2020 to prevent and contain the COVID-19 infection. This study investigated the impact of the reduced human activities during the self-restraint period on the temperature in the Tokyo metropolitan area. By using surface station data, the author revealed negative temperature anomaly in the central district of Tokyo from April to May, corresponding to the strong restraint period imposed by the government. It was demonstrated that the temperature anomaly in central Tokyo is about −0.5°C and is larger in the nighttime than in the daytime. It was also shown that a weak negative anomaly of about −0.2°C is found in the weak restraint period from late February to early April. The present result implies that the reduction of anthropogenic heat release affects significantly the temperature decrease in densely populated urban areas such as central Tokyo. The finding of this study is highly evaluated in revealing the impacts of human activities and the resulting anthropogenic heat release on the temperature in urban areas. With the growing concern on the urban heat island under climate change, it is critically important to quantify the influences of anthropogenic heat release on the urban atmospheric environment. This study would contribute to assessing the impacts of human activities on climate change at urban scales.
The Editorial Committee of SOLA highly evaluates the significance of this study and therefore presents The SOLA Award.

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We investigate regional characteristics of future changes in snowfall in Japan under two emission scenarios—RCP2.6 and RCP8.5—using a high-resolution regional climate model with 5km grid spacing and discuss the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation. The high-resolution model can simulate details of changes in distributions of total snowfall in Japan. Under RCP2.6, the annual total snowfall decreases in most parts of Japan except for Japan's northern island, Hokkaido. In Hokkaido, the winter snowfall increases even under RCP8.5, especially in January and February. The snowfall peak is delayed from early December to late January in Hokkaido. Along the Sea of Japan in eastern Japan, the winter-total snowfall decreases even if the winter mean temperature is below 0°C in the future climate. The different snowfall changes in Hokkaido and on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan are caused by precipitation changes in each region. Future changes in atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low cause the enhancement and the inhibition of winter precipitation in Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, respectively, contributing to changes in the regional characteristics of snowfall and snow cover in addition to moistening due to atmospheric and ocean warming.

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This study investigated characteristics of atmospheric environmental fields in the occurrence of quasi-stationary convective bands (QSCBs) in Kyushu, western Japan during the July 2020 heavy rainfall event. We performed case studies of extreme rainfall subevents in the Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures on 3-4 July (2020KK) and northern Kyushu on 6-7 July 2020 (2020NK), compared with two heavy rainfall events in northern Kyushu in 2017 and 2018.

Nine QSCBs were objectively extracted during the July 2020 heavy rainfall event, causing hourly precipitation amounts exceeding 100 mm twenty times. In 2020KK, the environmental field with extremely large precipitable water due to low-level and middle-level humidity was affected by the upper-level cold airflow, which resulted in favorable condition for the deep convection development. Consequently, the lightning activity became high, and cloud tops were the highest in comparison to previous events. QSCBs in 2020KK and 2020NK were located along a low-level convergence line/zone associated with an inflow that had extremely large water vapor flux on the south side of the mesoscale Baiu frontal depressions. In most of the QSCB cases in 2020, mesoscale depressions were observed and enhanced horizontal winds, which led to extremely large low-level water vapor flux to produce short-term heavy rainfall.

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While global warming may expand suitable places for potato cultivation in cold regions, it may reduce the yield due to the increase of hot days during the tuber growth period. This study evaluated the effects of global warming on potato cultivation over Hokkaido by dynamically-downscaled ensemble experiments called d4PDF and assessed applicability of possible adaptive measures. In this study, we define the suitable area based on the accumulated temperature and deduced a relationship between the potato yield per unit area and the number of hot days (maximum temperature > 28°C) from crop statistic data. In a warming environment with 2K or 4K increase in global-mean temperature relative to the present climate (1981-2010), the accumulated temperatures likely satisfied the criterion on potato production almost over Hokkaido. The risk of growth delay due to cold weather was projected to reduce. However, hot days in the tuber growth period would increase, reducing potato yield by 7% in a plus 2-K climate and 16% in a plus 4-K climate. This risk of yield loss would not be avoidable by moving up planting by 30 days, and the development of varieties that are tolerant to 31-33°C would be a possible way to adaptation.

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Stratospheric aerosols over the high Arctic at Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N, 12°E) were observed continuously for four years from March 2014 by a lidar system using the second harmonic wavelength (532 nm) of the Nd:YAG laser. Our observations reveal the seasonal features of stratospheric aerosols and the arrival of the smoke at the high Arctic from Canadian forest-fire in August 2017. We estimated the seasonal variation for three years before the Canadian forest-fire when there was no apparent volcanic effect. In the estimation, we removed polar stratospheric clouds by the threshold temperature of their formation. The seasonal variation for the three years is that the vertical profiles of the backscattering ratio take a maximum value of about 1.05-1.06 at altitudes between 13 and 16 km from December to March, and about 1.02-1.04 at altitudes between 17 and 20 km from April to November. These results are compared with the results observed at the low Arctic, northern Norway. We also present the increases in the backscattering ratio and the volume depolarization ratio from September to December 2017 caused by the smoke from the Canadian forest-fire.

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This study developed a volume scan-type disdrometer and investigated the size distribution of solid-precipitation particles observed by flux- and volume-scan type disdrometers, installed in 2016-2017 winter in Sapporo, Japan. The former disdrometer detected particles, by line sensors, of which frequency is proportional to the particle number per area. On the other hand, the latter directly observed the particle number per volume using an image sensor. The flux-scan data are known to have the bias of more frequency in higher-speed (or larger-size) particles, but this bias was hardly corrected due to the error of estimated particles' velocity. It was first validated that the volume scan-type disdrometer could observe particle size between 0.5 mm and 13 mm, consistently with the flux scan-type one. Then, we examined how many events showed the difference of the size distribution between the two disdrometers with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The result showed that 84% of the total events examined fell into the class where they were significantly different, partially due to fast-falling graupels.

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Forecast performances of the July 2020 Kyushu heavy rain have been revisited with the aim of improving the forecasts for this event. While the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) deterministic forecasts were relatively good, the JMA's ensemble forecasts somehow missed this event. Our approach is to introduce flow-dependence into assimilation by running a 1000-member local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF1000) to extract more information from observations and to better quantify forecast uncertainties. To save computational costs, vertical localization is removed in running LETKF1000. Qualitative and quantitative verifications show that the LETKF1000 forecasts outperform the operational forecasts both in deterministic and probabilistic forecasts.

Rather than a trick to save computational costs, removal of vertical localization is shown to be the main contribution to the outperformance of LETKF1000. If vertical localization is removed, forecasts with similar performances can be obtained with 100 ensemble members. We hypothesize that running ensemble Kalman filters with around 1000 ensemble members is more effective if vertical localization is removed at the same time. Since this study examines only one case, to assess benefit of removing vertical localization rigorously when the number of ensemble members is around 1000, a larger set of cases needs to be considered in future.

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The predictability of the July 2020 heavy rainfall event that saw record-breaking rainfall over Western Japan in July 2020 is examined with the near real-time SCALE-LETKF numerical modelling system in a low resolution 18-km configuration setting. Ensemble-mean 5-day rainfall total forecasts showed close agreement with Japanese Meteorological Agency 1-km precipitation analyses in relation to the large-scale distribution of rainfall and to location of heaviest rainfall over Kyushu. Onset and duration of rainfall at specific sites across Kyushu were also well predicted by the forecasts. However, the precise prediction of heavy rainfall, including over the worst-hit Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures, was severely underestimated.

Examination of the atmospheric conditions at the time of the heavy rainfall from reanalysis datasets and ensemble member forecasts showed very high humidity over central Kyushu with strong transport of moisture from the southwest to central regions. In addition, strong low-level convergence was observed to the west of Kyushu in both reanalysis and best performing member forecasts during the time of heavy rainfall, suggesting a potential contributing factor to the record-breaking rainfall.

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Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.

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High-resolution boundary layer radar (BLR) and wavelet are utilized to observe microscale downdraft-updraft combinations. High-resolution BLR can observe thermal activity that pushed the stable layer. During this thermal, a combination of downdraft-updraft was also observed. A detailed observation of this combination was conducted in this study. Using a 1-dimensional continuous wavelet transform with Paul wavelet, we could quantify this downdraft-updraft combination based on the height and period. Using this quantification and wavelet variance in different weather conditions, we showed the essential period from 0 to 0.25 min, 2 to 4 min, and 4 to 8 min of this microscale downdraft-updraft combination.

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To clarify three-dimensional (3-D) spatiotemporal variations and horizontal–vertical transport processes in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) over urban areas, combined NO₂ profile observations by multiple Multi AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) and direct wind observations by 3-D coherent Doppler lidar were made over an urban area in Japan. MAX-DOAS measurements were conducted at Yakuin and Fukuoka University in Fukuoka urban area with high temporal resolution of four minutes.

Enhanced NO₂ concentrations were often observed over the city center. We conducted a case study on 29 November 2018 under clear sky conditions and NO₂ profiles were well retrieved. Using MAX-DOAS at two locations, high NO₂ concentrations were observed near the surface of the city center in the morning. Higher NO₂ concentrations appearing gradually at higher altitudes over the city center and disappearing in the afternoon are explained using direct evidence of a 3-D wind field: an airmass with a high NO₂ concentration was transported upward over the city center. Then, the airmass was advected landward by a sea breeze. Multiple MAX-DOAS combined with 3-D Doppler lidar constitutes a powerful tool for elucidating horizontal–vertical transport processes. It can contribute to the improvement of data retrieval by satellites for urban areas.

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The performances of bulk microphysical schemes were evaluated through comparisons with observations, including a new volume scanning video disdrometer targeting one of a typical snowfall event in Hokkaido, Japan. For the evaluation, downscaling experiments using three bulk microphysical schemes were conducted: a two-moment bulk scheme, a one-moment bulk scheme, and an improved version of the one-moment bulk scheme coupled with an identical dynamical core. The two-moment scheme successfully simulated the measured relationship between particle size and terminal velocity distribution (PSVD). On the other hand, the one-moment scheme overestimated the graupel frequency, its terminal velocity, and underestimated the particle diameter. The improved version of the one-moment bulk scheme reduced the overestimation of the terminal velocity of hydrometeors, but still overestimated the graupel frequency. We improved the overestimation of terminal velocity and the frequency of graupel in the one-moment scheme by modifying the assumption of the velocity–diameter relationship and the intercept parameter of the size distribution of graupel based on the results of the new disdrometeor. The observation of the new disdrometer would give us hints to improve the microphysics schemes in snowfall cases.

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The internal structure and evolution of a monsoon trough (MT) and associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the western North Pacific were investigated, based mainly on radiosonde and a Doppler radar observations in Palau. The MT was observed on 15-16 June 2013, with the pre-existing disturbance of Typhoon Leepi (2013) being embedded in it. The large-scale circulation around the MT featured a pattern representing an active MT. Deep convection developed ahead and at the leading edge of the downward-sloping monsoonal flow, where intense low-level convergence was observed. Stratiform precipitation broadened rearward over the MT axis. A deep and wide layer of warm and moist air over the MT axis was undercut by a layer of cold air sloping downward from the trailing stratiform region to the leading convective region. An intense low-pressure zone formed in the interface between the warm layer above and cold layer below, with the westerly monsoonal and easterly trade flows being enhanced on its west and east sides, respectively, from the low to middle troposphere. The results suggest that a strengthening of the large-scale cyclonic circulation in response to the internal processes of the MCSs triggered by the MT is important for typhoon genesis.

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This study evaluated the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) resolution on dynamically downscaled daily surface air temperature (Tsrf) in the Kanto region during early summer. Two downscaling experiments and one additional experiment were conducted using different SST datasets for the months of June and July over a 10-year period. The results demonstrated that the Tsrf difference in the Kanto region between the high-resolution SST experiment (Run-H) and the low-resolution SST experiment (Run-C) correlates positively with the difference in surrounding SST. The impact of SST difference depends on the wind direction and speed. By comparing the results with observations at meteorological stations, the number of days with warm Tsrf bias in Run-C significantly reduces in Run-H, but the number of days with cold Tsrf bias still remains. These results suggest that SST resolution influences the downscaled Tsrf reproducibility over land, and it is worthwhile to pay attention to coastal SST.

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This study investigates the impact of applying different types of initial and boundary perturbations for convective-scale ensemble data assimilation systems. Several observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were performed with a 2-km horizontal resolution, considering a realistic environment, taking model error into account, and combining different perturbations' types with warm/cold start initialization. Initial perturbations produce a long-lasting impact on the analysis's quality, particularly for variables not directly linked to radar observations. Warm-started experiments provide the most accurate analysis and forecasts and a more consistent ensemble spread across the different spatial scales. Random small-scale perturbations exhibit similar results, although a longer convergence time is required to up-and-downscale the initial perturbations to obtain a similar error reduction. Adding random large-scale perturbations reduce the error in the first assimilation cycles but produce a slightly detrimental effect afterward.

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La Niña cases that occurred after 1948 are classified into cold and non-cold winters in the Far East to investigate the formation of disparate teleconnection patterns corresponding to the two types and to compare with those during El Niño. According to composite analyses using reanalysis datasets, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)/western Pacific (WP) pattern (NPO/WP pattern) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern dominate in the cold and non-cold winters, respectively. As during El Niño, modulations of the local Hadley circulation associated with La Niña play an important role in the formation of the teleconnection patterns. These results indicate that the formation mechanisms of teleconnection patterns during La Niña are the same as those during El Niño but are not simple reverse signals.

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Aerosol number concentrations and trace gases (SO₂, O₃, HCHO, and H₂O₂) were measured over Imizu City, Toyama Prefecture, Japan on 5 August 2020, from a helicopter. The concentrations of fine particles (0.3-0.5 μm) were high at ground level and at an altitude of approximately 1200 m due to the volcanic plume from Nishinoshima. However, concentrations of aerosol particles were low at an altitude of approximately 2400 m. The volcanic plume did not significantly affect the lower free troposphere. High concentrations of SO₂ were also observed. The H₂O₂ concentrations (0.27-0.56 ppb) were much lower than those during previous observations in the summer (2.0-6.7 ppb) and significantly lower than the SO₂ concentrations (1.8-3.3 ppb). The concentrations of HCHO (2.1-2.5 ppb) were higher than those of H₂O₂. The oxidation of S(IV) to H₂SO₄ in cloud water might have been suppressed over the studied area.

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In July 2018, record-breaking heavy precipitation caused catastrophic disasters in west Japan. This study investigated the predictability of this precipitation event using a regional ensemble data assimilation system. A series of daily ensemble forecast experiments showed that the forecast ensemble spread during the heavy precipitation event increased in the forecasts initialized on 1 July and 3 July. The first peak of the forecast ensemble spread was associated with the uncertain track forecast of Typhoon Prapiroon. Namely, about a half of the ensemble members predicted eastward recurvature of the typhoon, whereas the other members predicted that the typhoon stayed near China. The later peak was associated with the southern convective disturbances near the Ryukyu Islands. Composite analysis and ensemble-based correlations showed that more active convective activities corresponded to a stronger cyclonic circulation and pushed the main precipitation band northward. The results implied that Prapiroon and the southern convective disturbances played important roles in the July 2018 heavy rain event and largely contributed to its predictability.

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In this study, we conducted a domain-integrated vorticity budget analysis to quantitatively understand the developing mechanism of the Arctic Cyclone (AC) in August 2016 (AC16). The results showed that the vorticity enhancement of the AC16 was dominated by the horizontal flux convergence of vorticity at all layers with a maximum near the tropopause. The enhancement near the tropopause was characterized not only by the horizontal supply but also by the vertical transport of vorticity. In the boundary layer within the AC16, the convergence of horizontal winds and the corresponding divergence of vertical winds occurred. In addition, during the merging process, updrafts were dominant in the troposphere due to the structure of the mid-latitude cyclone. These structures caused the upward transport of vorticity to the tropopause, which is considered as an important internal process of the AC16. However, time-averaged vorticity budget during the developing stage indicated that the vertical flux term and the divergence term compensate with each other. As a result, it was concluded that the AC is excited and maintained by the merging of the vortices associated with the migrating mid-latitude cyclone and polar vortex.

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Rossby waves propagating along the Asian jet frequently cause the breaking near the jet exit region. This study examines characteristics of oceanographic condition and atmospheric circulation associated with interdecadal variability of Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan in August. Sea surface temperature during a period of the higher Rossby wave breaking frequency is cooler over the central part of the tropical North Pacific, compared with that during a period of the lower frequency. Convective activities are suppressed over the region consistent with the cooler sea surface temperature, contributing to an enhanced and southwestward extended mid-Pacific trough. Deceleration and diffluence of the Asian jet are stronger during the period of the higher frequency than that during the period of the lower one. The enhanced deceleration and diffluence of the jet are associated with the enhanced and southwestward extended mid-Pacific trough. The abovementioned dynamical influence is also shown by a numerical simulation using an atmospheric linear baroclinic model. These results indicate that the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature over the central part of the tropical North Pacific has an impact on that of the Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan, through the modulated convective activities and mid-Pacific trough.

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The Gobi Desert is a dominant source of dust on the Asian continent. In this study, we analysed the characteristics of a typical Mongolian dust storm and identified a prominent dust hotspot in the Gobi Desert. During a field survey from Ulaanbaatar (the capital of Mongolia) to Dalanzadgad in the Gobi Desert, we encountered a typical dust storm on 28 April 2019, exhibiting a distinct dust wall. The head of the dust storm crossed the road several kilometres ahead of our vehicle. The head of the storm had a height of 600 m, and its structure suggested that the dust storm was induced by a gravity current. We entered the front of the dust storm and measured a maximum wind speed of 18.2 m/s and a visibility of less than 10 m. The normalized dust number concentration at 7 μm was 59 cm⁻³. Moreover, Himawari-8 Dust RGB imagery showed that the dust storm occurred in an orographic convergence zone. This zone connects two valleys that are sandwiched between three mountains in the Gobi Desert: the Khangai, Altai, and Gurvan Saikhan Mountains. Our results suggest that this zone is a remarkable dust hotspot in the Gobi Desert.

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Identical twin experiments with and without topography are conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in an idealized framework to investigate the impact of topography on the initial error growth associated with moist convection. A topography is set as a single Gaussian shape mountain with a peak height of about 1000 m. Both experiments show clear diurnal cycles, while moist convection develops earlier and organizes to a larger size in the experiment with topography. To evaluate the initial error growth, a metric referred to as moist difference total energy (MDTE) is proposed to represent the differences between the two simulations in twin experiments. The horizontal spatial distribution, temporal evolution, and horizontal wavenumber space of the MDTE suggest that the error growth is greatly dominated by the different features of convection development between the two experiments. The analysis based on individual cloud areas shows that the convective clouds developing over the mountain have smaller MDTE at the early stage of development.

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Tropical cyclone track forecast experiments were conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System with the initial conditions from three numerical weather prediction centers, to distinguish between tropical cyclone track forecast errors attributable to the initial state uncertainty and those attributable to the model imperfection. The average position error was reduced by replacing the initial conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The northward recurvature of Lupit (2009) was not reproduced with initial conditions from the Japan Meteorological Agency. It was consistent with the preceding study, indicating sensitivity to the initial state. The sensitivity to the model and the initial state was obtained for Parma (2009), as opposed to the conclusion of the previous study, where Parma was discovered to be insensitive to the initial state, and the error was assumed to come from the model difference. Insensitivity to the initial vortex structures in the predicted tracks for Parma indicates that the error in the steering flow formed by the environmental field around tropical cyclone contributes to the northward bias.

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In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations of border-crossing dust events (DEs), including floating, blowing dust, and dust storms between Mongolia (MG) and Inner Mongolia (IM), China using the ground-based observations from 91 synoptic stations across the Mongolian Plateau during 1977-2018. We defined the intensity of DEs (progressive and recessive) depending on the dust impact area (number of stations affected by dust) by dividing them into three categories: DEs, transported dust events (T-DEs), and severe transported dust events (ST-DEs). The results revealed that during 1977-2018, the frequency of DEs in MG was two times higher than in IM. Simultaneously, the frequency of DEs (dominated by dust storms) increased in MG, whereas IM experienced a decrease in DEs (prevalent types of blowing dust). The T-DEs occurred 2.4 times higher than the ST-DEs over Mongolian Plateau. For the border-crossing DEs, transported dust storms were the dominant type. During 1977-1999, approximately 86% of DEs in IM originated from MG; however, this was decreased to 60% in the 2000s (2000-2018). The intensity of the border-crossing DEs originated from MG and the recessive T-DEs increased significantly since the 2000s, which were more significant than the progressive type.

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The northern Eurasia is a region heavily affected by the Arctic polar vortex (APV). Understanding the vegetation responses to anomalous APV in this region is important for dealing with climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts and mechanism of the anomalous APV phases on the vegetation dynamics in the northern Eurasia. The larger and smaller APV phases correspond to almost opposite atmospheric circulation patterns which result in opposite vegetation responses. The decreased (increased) solar radiation, the enhanced (weakened) northerly winds, together with the decreased (increased) water vapor divergence, caused the decreasing (increasing) of the air temperature, increasing (decreasing) of the precipitation and soil moisture in the study area during the larger (smaller) APV phase. The response of vegetation growth to the APV depends on climate change and vegetation sensitivity to it. In most parts of the study area, vegetation growth was positively associated with air temperature, and hence, vegetation was suppressed (promoted) during the larger (smaller) APV phase. In the northeast of the Caspian Sea (NCS), vegetation growth was sensitive to precipitation. Therefore, the increased (decreased) soil moisture in summer and autumn were responsible for the promoted (suppressed) vegetation growth during the larger (smaller) APV phase.

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Precipitation in East Africa has the potential to enrich the lives of or bring ruin to millions of people that rely heavily on agriculture. Precipitation itself is in turn reliant on regional and extra-regional factors. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is such a factor and in this paper, its influence on the short rains that occur from October to December is studied through a quantitative assessment of information flow (IF) between the Dipole Mode Index and stations scattered throughout Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda. Although it was initially thought that the African Great Lakes would have had an effect on the sensitivity of a given station's precipitation to the IOD, clear patterns on which stations were most sensitive or insensitive to IOD activity could not be properly identified. This is perhaps due to a plethora of atmospheric and topographic factors that contribute to local precipitation. As such, additional research is strongly encouraged to elucidate the reason, if any, and excluding statistical artifacts, for observed discrepancies.

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This study presents a possible large-scale factor of tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, which is triggered by Rossby wave breaking to the east of Japan. More than half of the wave breaking cases is accompanied by the tropical cyclogenesis. Results from a composite analysis for the wave breaking cases indicate that the genesis and development of tropical cyclones are dominant over the southwest quadrant of the wave breaking center, where an intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity caused by the wave breaking and the consequent enhanced convection are seen. The number of tropical cyclones in the wave breaking cases exponentially increases in time during the developing stage of the wave breaking. The results of composite analysis further indicate that lower-level strong wind convergence and the associated enhanced convection, which are resulting from the wave breaking, is favorable conditions for the tropical cyclogenesis. An enhanced monsoon trough accompanied by the Pacific–Japan pattern resulting from the enhanced convection can regulate tracks of the tropical cyclones. These results show that the Rossby wave breaking can trigger the tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, through the southwestward intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity and the consequent enhanced convection.

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In the Western North Pacific, there is little meteorological data available for the 19th century. We found historical documents at Chichi-jima in the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands that report routine meteorological observations and weather conditions before 1906. In 1906, Japan Meteorological Agency began observations at Ohmura in the northwestern part of the island. The Home Ministry in Japan conducted the observations until 1906 at Ohgiura, the central part of Chichi-jima, which is 3 km away from Ohmura. We analyzed precipitation data at Ohgiura and Ohmura from 1975 to 2020 and found that the former is systematically greater than the latter. Therefore, we corrected pre-1906 precipitation at Ohgiura to ensure correlation with post-1906 precipitation at Ohmura. No discontinuous changes in the data were found around 1906. A previous study reported that annual precipitation at Ohmura for 1907-1944 was higher than that after World War II. We found that in some years from 1882 to 1906, the precipitation was less than that for 1907-1944, which agrees with the reported higher atmospheric pressure around Chichi-jima before 1906. Our study suggests that the trend of decreasing precipitation at Chichi-jima in the 20th century is not monotonous but a part of longer-scale temporal variations.

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The relationship between the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in the tropics and the summertime tropical-extratropical teleconnection called the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern is investigated. The positive correlation between the BSISO and intraseasonal PJ pattern peaks during BSISO phase 8 when the convective center of the BSISO reaches the vicinity of the Philippines. A composite analysis based on the BSISO events shows that intraseasonal responses to the migration of the BSISO extend to the midlatitudes and form circulation anomalies reminiscent of the PJ pattern. During phases 7-8, cyclonic wind anomalies with low-pressure signals drastically intensify north of the Philippines and southeasterly wind anomalies blow into midlatitude East Asia, influencing the summer climate. Other apparent intraseasonal signals in pressure and surface air temperature are found over the midlatitude central Pacific and eastern Eurasia, respectively. The intraseasonal variability in the PJ pattern associated with the BSISO undergoes strong interannual modulations, with enhanced intraseasonal signals in summers of the positive seasonal-mean PJ pattern and suppressed signals in those of the negative PJ pattern. This asymmetry between the positive and negative PJ summers highlights the importance of cross-scale interactions for a better understanding of summer climate in East Asia.

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Precipitation chemistry was observed at the remote background site at Ryori, Ofunato in northeastern Japan, from 1976 to 2011 as the part of World Meteorological Organization-Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO-GAW). During this period, anthropogenic emissions in East Asia varied widely, which affected the precipitation chemistry. The precipitation amount also affects the wet deposition amount. Thus, to eliminate the effect of the precipitation amount, we used the ratio of nitrate (NO₃⁻) to non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO₄²⁻) concentration in precipitation on an equivalent basis (Ratio). The historical trend of NO₃⁻ and nss-SO₄²⁻ concentrations in precipitation was not clear; however, Ratio showed a strong increase in the 1990s, a sudden drop in 2001, and an increase again after 2007. Based on the analysis of the historical emission dataset, the increases in Ratio during the 1990s and after 2007 were attributed to anthropogenic emission changes in Japan and China. The drop in Ratio in 2001 was explained by the massive SO₂ release from Miyakejima volcano from mid-August 2000, rather than by anthropogenic emissions. The 36-year historical record analysis of precipitation chemistry at Ryori detected both anthropogenic and natural emission changes and indicated the transition from local to transboundary air pollution in Japan.

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This study investigated the distributions of strong surface winds in the vicinity of Cape Erimo and the synoptic conditions favorable for inducing the strong winds by using scatterometer wind measurements and atmospheric reanalysis data. The wind around Cape Erimo is highly constrained by the topography, and the prevailing wind directions are split between westerly to west-northwesterly winds during the cool season and the easterly to northeasterly winds during the warm season. The zonal wind components in the region surrounding Cape Erimo are significantly correlated with the east–west sea level pressure gradient, which works as an index for the strong winds in the vicinity of Cape Erimo. Using composite analysis based on the index, the following atmospheric fields are presented. The low-pressure system passing over the Okhotsk Sea induces the northwesterly winds to the south of Cape Erimo during the cool season. The well-organized southwesterly winds are observed in the east of Cape Erimo when the southwesterly winds dominate during the warm season. The low-pressure system passing over Japan enhances the easterly winds around Cape Erimo during the cool season. The developed Okhotsk high induces strong winds to the southwest of Cape Erimo during the warm season.

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The tornadic debris signatures (TDSs) of the Ichihara Tornado associated with Typhoon Hagibis (2019) were observed using two operational C-band dual-polarization weather radars and an X-band phased-array weather radar (PAWR). This TDS observation was the first to be made over Japan in a typhoon environment. The TDS bins spread over time, and the maximum vertical and aerial extents reached 2.4 km and 9.41 km², respectively. The estimated rise velocity of the TDS was 8 m s⁻¹. The first TDS was detected ∼1 min before damage reporting began. The TDSs became clearer along with the rotational velocity of the near-surface vortex detected by PAWR. The copolar correlation coefficient reached a minimum (0.27) ∼1 min after the tornado passed the most severely damaged area and increased gradually over 4 min. This suggests that heavy and/or dense debris was lofted and immediately fell out and/or diffused, whereas light debris remained aloft for ≥ 4 min. By comparing the PAWR-detected vortex signatures with aerial photographs, we inferred that the first TDS comprised vegetated debris, the clearest TDS mainly comprised destroyed manmade structures. These results indicate that TDS detection is effective both for investigating damage and for recognizing tornado's occurrence even in a typhoon environment.

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This study examines the observed seasonal and annual rainfall trend and variability in Bhutan from 1996-2017. Using standard statistical methods, we utilized Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to determine the trends in the seasonal rainfall of Bhutan. We analyzed the temporal variability and spatial pattern of rainfall by using the principal component analysis (PCA), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Our results indicate that the summer season contributed to the 73% of the total rainfall in Bhutan while winter season contributed only 1%. Results from the PCI indicate that the rainfall distribution in the northeast part of the country is moderately concentrated while the south to the northwest portion experienced high fluctuation in rainfall distribution. PCA explains the 90.1% of the total variance is linked to the variability of Asian monsoon. The influences of ENSO/La Niña are possible causes for the variability of rainfall in Bhutan though this necessitates more investigations to corroborate.

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This study statistically investigated sensitivities of simulated precipitation to horizontal resolution of a regional climate model, instead of focusing on particular cases. We performed long-term integrations of models with horizontal grid spacings of 20, 5, 2, 1, and 0.5 km over Kyushu in the Baiu seasons of 2009-2020. The 2-km grid model improves simulated precipitation to the 5-km grid models with and without cumulus parameterization. Further decreasing the gird spacing from 2 km to 1 and 0.5 km reduces the dependency of the frequency biases on intensities of hourly precipitation and mitigates the excessive concentration of heavy precipitation in small scale, approaching that of the radar/raingauge analysis. The features of individual deep moist convections, specifically the horizontal scale of updrafts, the representation of downdrafts, and the number of convections, start to converge when the grid spacing is reduced from 1 to 0.5 km. The results suggest models with grid spacing of 1 km or less are needed to resolve deep moist convections and to represent the resulting precipitations. The 2-km grid models can partly resolve the deep moist convections, but their effective resolution is still insufficient, requiring some parameterizations to simulate convective precipitations appropriately.

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Numerous wetlands, including the world's two largest contiguous wetlands, lie along the free-flowing Paraná and Paraguay Rivers that travel the length of subtropical South America (SSA) region. These wetlands are floodplains that are inundated with rising river water in flood events; their morphology and area are highly changeable with flooding extent. The long-term variability of methane emission from this wetland hotspot and its sensitivity to meteorological conditions are not well known. We herein explore this unknown using space-based estimates of methane flux for the SSA region between 2009 and 2015 along with data of water balance. We find that methane emission from this region coherently varies with precipitation and inundation areal extent.

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Using vital statistics data from 1995 to 2019, the relationships among interannual variations of total mortality, heat-stroke mortality, and temperature in summer were assessed in an attempt to estimate excess deaths in hot summer years in Japan. The number of deaths in July and August increased by 1.1% for each 1°C increment of summer mean temperature over Japan, with an eight-fold larger range of interannual variation than the more narrowly defined heat-stroke deaths. This fact implies that excess deaths due to heat are about eight times more prevalent than heat-stroke deaths and can be on the order of 10,000 in a hot summer year. Analyses by age group and cause of death indicated that excess deaths are largely associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among elderly people.

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A novel lightweight and high-accuracy variant of the image pan-sharpening technique is designed for Himawari-8 multispectral images. This method, named Additive Template Sharpening, injects higher-wavenumber components of the highest-resolution Band 3 images into lower-resolution visible or shortwave infrared images, thereby providing multispectral high-resolution images. This injection is realized by adding inter-band differential field to the high-resolution band, making use of the specific pixel arrangement of the Himawari-8 imager for simple and accurate coordinate transformations. Both subjective inspection of RGB composite images and objective evaluation of the upsampling indicate that Additive Template Sharpening exhibits higher accuracy than existing methods for Bands 1-6 of Himawari-8. This technique not only enables operational forecasters to diagnose atmospheric conditions in more details using higher-resolution RGB composites, but also provides higher-quality true-color imagery for the public.

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A three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer (RT) model based on the Monte Carlo method was developed to evaluate the cloud-resolving radiation budget. The simulation data of stratocumulus (open and closed cell types) stimulated by a large eddy simulation model were used to obtain a detailed cloud field dataset at different spatial resolutions between 100 m and 1 km orders. By applying the 3D RT model offline to a multiscale cloud field dataset, the 3D distribution and magnitude of the solar radiative heating rate were estimated for each spatial resolution. The results showed that the magnitude of the local solar radiative heating effect significantly changes in the range of spatial resolution between 100 m and 1 km. The solar radiative heating rate can reach 6 K/hr locally in the case of the spatial resolution at 100-m order, whereas it is approximately 1 K/hr at most in the case of the spatial resolution at 1-km order. However, the domain-averaged values of the solar radiative heating rates were almost invariant at different spatial resolutions. The results indicate that a radiation scheme for the cloud-resolving model needs to be constructed while considering spatial resolutions, along with cloud parameterization.

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To develop offshore wind energy, we investigated nearshore wind conditions, notably the land–sea contrast, using the coastal area of Mutsu-Ogawara, Aomori Prefecture as a case study. We found that wind conditions were substantially different between onshore (MT-A1) and offshore (MT-B) sites, even when the latter were only 1.5 km apart. The mean wind speed at 55 m above sea level at MT-B was higher than that at the onshore site by up to 20% monthly and 12% annually. For winds from the landward side, the Iref value (turbulence intensity at a mean wind speed of 15 m/s) at MT-B was 37% lower than that at MT-A1. Because such high wind speeds and low turbulence conditions are preferable for the operation of wind turbines, an offshore wind farm would have advantageous wind conditions, even if placed close to the coastline. Moreover, we found that the land–sea contrast is caused not only by mechanical factors, such as roughness length, but also by thermodynamic factors such as seasonal variations of atmospheric stability over land and sea.

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The emission of Asian dust in arid regions of East Asia is controlled by many land surface parameters such as snow cover, soil moisture, and vegetation. In climate models, these factors are represented by the threshold friction velocity u_*t, but its treatment has large uncertainties. Here we show that the treatment of u_*t is important for estimating the emissions, transport, and climate impacts of Asian dust. Our global aerosol model simulates dust event frequencies that better agree with observations in East Asia when u_*t over a smooth surface is changed from the default value of 0.23 m s⁻¹ to an observation-based value of 0.40 m s⁻¹. Also, seasonal Asian dust emissions become more variable, increasing by 31% in spring and decreasing by 46% in summer and fall, and the annual amounts of Asian dust transported and deposited over the North Pacific (Arctic) increase by 43% and 49% (130% and 73%), respectively. Our results demonstrate that better representation of u_*t in climate models is necessary to improve estimates of the emissions and transport of Asian dust and better understand its roles in the Earth system, such as its interactions with radiation, clouds, snow/ice albedo, and land and ocean biogeochemistry.

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A modified version of the principal component analysis (PCA) is introduced by reconsidering statistical degrees of freedom in spatial dimensions based on spatial auto-correlations. In the conventional PCA, data points that represent equal areas are assumed to have equal amount of information. In our new method, the intensive variability extraction (IVE), data points correlated with less other data points are weighted more before performing PCA. Hence, variability with independent information is emphasized, even if the variability is confined to small areas.

Sea surface temperature (SST) data at each grid in the tropics are shown to have fewer spatial statistical degrees of freedom than that in the extratropics. Tropical SSTs exhibit covariability with large areas, because oceanic equatorial waves and atmospheric gravity waves share temperature information with surrounding areas. As to the extratropics, grids along the western boundaries of oceanic basins are more independent than those in the east, following dynamical requirement of the Earth's rotation.

Using IVE, climate modes that involve interscale covariability are extracted. IVE performed for the Pan-Pacific SSTs extracts the Pacific Decadal Oscillation assuming the aforementioned a priori dynamical expectation. Using extratropical SSTs, it is demonstrated that IVE detects synchronicity of small-scale variability between distant narrow regions.

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Atmospheric patterns associated with wide-spread extreme precipitation events during the Baiu season over western Japan have a diversity in the record. Using an objective approach based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, this study introduces a classification of atmospheric parameters related to the wide-spread extreme precipitation events which are not directly caused by tropical cyclones. The number of a rain gauge observation stations that record extreme precipitation during the Baiu season over western Japan is equivalently proportional to the scores of the first two Principal Components, implying that there are two orthogonal controlling factors for the occurrence of wide-spread extreme precipitation. The first Principal Component is well correlated with a typical frontal dynamical structure as the enhanced westerly jet, the large gradient of the equivalent potential temperature, and the upper-level Rossby wave train injecting into a cyclonic anomaly at the north of the precipitation area. On the other hand, the second Principal Component is dominated by moisture fields with a low-level cyclone and no upper-level signal. This finding could provide a physical understanding of the diversity of atmospheric patterns causing wide-spread extreme precipitation over western Japan and physical insight into how it will change in the future climate.

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Relationship between diurnal convection and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the western Maritime Continent (MC) was investigated by a case study of an ISO event that occurred during the Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC)-Sumatra 2017 campaign. Two sets of global cloud-permitting simulations using cloud microphysics settings for ISO prediction (CTL) and for climate simulation (MOD) were performed to clarify their impacts. CTL had biases of weaker diurnal variation and smaller precipitation amounts over land than in observations; these were reduced in MOD by higher probabilities of local intense convection in the middle troposphere and higher precipitation efficiency. The enhanced convection over land coincided with suppressed convection over the surrounding ocean, especially at the diurnal peak time of land convection. Exception is the onset period of the ISO convection, when upward moisture advection and precipitation increased also over ocean in MOD than in CTL at the diurnal peak time of oceanic convection. These results suggest that the enhancement of local convection over the MC by the cloud microphysical processes basically hinders the ISO convection by the activation of land convection, but it also favors the ISO convection development over ocean during the onset period.

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