Online ISSN : 1349-6476
ISSN-L : 1349-6476
Future changes in the global frequency of tropical cyclone seeds
Masato SugiYohei YamadaKohei YoshidaRyo MizutaMasuo NakanoChihiro KodamaMasaki Satoh
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JOURNALS OPEN ACCESS Advance online publication

Article ID: 2020-012

This article has a public article.

In relation to projections of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, there is a debate on whether the global frequency of TC seeds (weak pre-storm vortices) will increase or not. We examined changes in the frequency of TC seeds by occurrence frequency analysis (OFA) of vortex intensity (vorticity or maximum wind speed). We directly counted the number of vortices with various intensities in high resolution global atmospheric model simulations for present and future climates. By using the OFA we showed a clear reduction of the occurrence frequency of TC seeds and relatively weak (category 2 or weaker) TCs in a future warmer climate, with an increase in the frequency of the most intense (category 5) TCs. The results suggest that the OFA is a useful method to estimate the future changes in TC frequency distribution ranging from TC seeds to the most intense TCs.

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© The Author(s) 2020. This is an open access article published by the Meteorological Society of Japan under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.