Abstract
In the order-receiving business that the company provide the duct and the system based on the customer request, it is important to sophisticate the decision-making before signing the contract for preventing the project trouble. Then, we develop the prediction method of project earnings variation based on the project risk factors in order to detect early the trouble projects. The feature of this method is to extract the similar past projects based on the project evaluation about risk factors, and to predict the project earnings variation based on the actual project earnings variations of the similar past projects by parity of reasoning. We verified the predicting performance of this method by real data of the system development project, and confirmed that the algorithm of this method is effective.
