Japanese Journal of Risk Analysis
Online ISSN : 2185-4548
Print ISSN : 0915-5465
ISSN-L : 0915-5465
Papers
Model Construction for Evaluating Atmospheric Pollutant Risk and Risk Transfer Associated with Next-Generation Vehicle Prevalence; Case Study about NOX Exhaust
Naoya KOJIMAAkihiro TOKAIToyohiko NAKAKUBO
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2015 Volume 25 Issue 3 Pages 131-138

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Abstract
It is thought that penetration of Next Generation Vehicle (NGV) will decrease human health risk by air pollution, however it is unknown that increasing of electric demand by using Electric Vehicle (EV) caused risk transference, a type of risk tradeoff, around thermal power generations. We aim to construct the model that can show human health impact distribution by both electric production and transportation considering NGV penetration. We applied this model for (re-)estimating NOX density to 3 cases with the composition of 2010 and 2030 (future) passenger vehicles. Results show that (1) in the case of 39% EV prevalence, the number of patient who has respiratory disease decreased 486.4 people, and (2) from the comparison with the case of 10% EV prevalence, there was not risk transference like increasing patients around electric plant. And such benefit mainly enjoyed people in metropolitan area.
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© 2015 The Society for Risk Analysis Japan
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