交通・発電部門における大気汚染影響を考慮した次世代自動車の普及によるリスク移転影響評価モデルの構築及びNO_Xを対象としたケーススタディ

抄録

It is thought that penetration of Next Generation Vehicle (NGV) will decrease human health risk by air pollution, however it is unknown that increasing of electric demand by using Electric Vehicle (EV) caused risk transference, a type of risk tradeoff, around thermal power generations. We aim to construct the model that can show human health impact distribution by both electric production and transportation considering NGV penetration. We applied this model for (re-)estimating NO_X density to 3 cases with the composition of 2010 and 2030 (future) passenger vehicles. Results show that (1) in the case of 39% EV prevalence, the number of patient who has respiratory disease decreased 486.4 people, and (2) from the comparison with the case of 10% EV prevalence, there was not risk transference like increasing patients around electric plant. And such benefit mainly enjoyed people in metropolitan area.