Abstract
Japan and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) are former malaria endemic areas, where malaria vectors are still present. This article compares the current situation in each country, analyses reasons for the differences, determines the main climatological parameters controlling malaria prevalence and makes predictions of the climatic suitability of further re-emergence in the region as a result of climate change. Future projections of risk are made using a climatically sensitive base-reproduction rate model for malaria. The results showed that South Korea experiences significantly more annual cases of malaria. Multiple regression analysis indicated that climatic variables have a statistically significant influence on the monthly malaria trends in South Korea (R2 11.1%) and no statistical influence on annual trends 1993–2010. The base reproduction rate model simulates the impact of climate on the biological processes involved in malaria transmission. Simulations of the biological base reproduction rate model Projected that the climate will become more suitable for malaria transmission in the future in all of the study areas. This model provides an important first step towards understanding the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.
