2008 Volume 38 Issue 3 Pages 567-581
The purpose of this paper is to analyze an econometric model of urban and rural areas in China.
The current population migration is a serious policy issue in China. Since 1962 population migration has been severely restricted under the strict family register system, but it started to grow only after 1978 due to liberalization trend. Since 1990's foreign investment rushed to coastal-urban area, so the interregional difference with the retarded inland region has rapidly expanded. The rural area is very poor and, and excess workers are increasing. The rural population started to migrate to urban areas as restrictions on migrations were largely relaxed in the 1990's. But statistical information and quantitative studies about it are very scarce.
Here we pick up two different areas of this study, an urban area that is expanding and facing a vast inflow of population, and a rural area in a backward retarded region as the origin of population outflow, to analyze the interregional population migration. For that purpose, we estimated the functions of population migration based on 31 provinces in the 2 areas, and also constructed simple growth models for both areas.
We clarified the extent of population migration and assessed their its impacts on regional economic growth by simulation studies that combine these functions. This is a part of continuous research, and an extension of previous year's report.
JEL Classification: C30, C40, C50, J31, O15, O18, O47, R15
