This paper aims to construct a regional macro-econometric model to quantitatively analyze factors that contribute to the correction of regional disparities by province in China.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the urbanization rate in China increased from 10.64% in the year 1949 to 25.84% in the year 1990. Furthermore, it exceeded 50% for the first time in the year 2011 and reached 65.22% in the year 2022. In the year 1962 household registration system strictly distinguished urban and rural areas and restricted population migration. This one factor contributes to regional disparities in China. Therefore, when we analyze the Chinese economy, regional economies, such as urban and rural areas, and coastal and inland areas need to be considered.
This paper examines regional disparities between coastal areas and inland areas in China;(1) focusing on the period from 1990 to 2020 (31 years), (2) targeting Shanghai (coastal are), Jiangxi (central area) and Gansu (inland area), (3) using official statistics from National Bureau of Statistics of China, (4) examining factors for reducing regional disparities in the three regions. By analyzing these factors, we explored the potential for reducing regional disparities in the Chinese economy.
The model developed is a macro-econometric model that adjusts the supply side and demand side. The core structure of the model is an adjustment of the aggregate demand side and aggregate supply side to develop a practical model that enables long-term forecasts, but also analyses short-term economic and fiscal developments. Other features of the model are as follows;
(1) Urban and rural areas population factors are important issues in China, so it is important to take a supply (production) side approach that includes population factors.
(2) “The capacity utilization rate” (demand-supply gap) is defined as the ratio between (a) aggregate demand (real GDP), determined endogenously by the sum of demand variables, and (b) aggregate supply (potential real GDP), determined by the value of the production function.
(3) Furthermore, “the capacity utilization rate” affects investments, various deflators and other variables.
(4) This model is a two-area (urban and rural) and two-sector (economic and fiscal) model.
JEL Classifications:C50, J31, O11, R15
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