Abstract
This study uses the railway transportation data of China to analyze trends in provincial logistics. In particular, the railway O-D (Origin and Destination) table (formally titled “ Freight Exchange of National Railway between Administration Regions” ) in the “ Year Book of China Transportation and Communications” is the only material that supplements provincial logistics in China.
First, the study calculates the shares among provinces. Second, the study estimates the future distribution by stochastic models represented by the Markov chain. Third, the study suggests a simple indicator that analyzes the changes in shares. According to this indicator, 0% shows no change in shares, whereas 100% show that share changes from one side to another. These results clearly indicate the trends and patterns in provincial logistics change slowly, resulting in less than 10% share change and stabilization of future convergence distributions.
Therefore, few changes can be expected in the provincial logistics trends in China However, this study is limited by the data obtained, because it does not analyze other modes of transportation. If the trends in logistics do not change through time, it is difficult to suggest a logistic policy, especially in terms of railway transportation, to reduce regional disparity. The policy for constructing a railway logistic center in poor regions to reduce disparity is not realistic. On the other hand, the demand for railway construction based on actual demand will continue for a while. As a result, there is a possibility the logistic policy will be influenced against our expectations if the trends in logistics greatly change. Therefore, a logistic policy for economical reasons is indispensable.
JEL Classification: C49, O53, R49
