Early Estimation of Damage on Regional Industrial Structure: Damage in Kumamoto Prefecture Due to Heavy Rain in July 2020

Abstract

　　Prompt implementation of measures according to the industrial structure of a region is indispensable for the reconstruction of affected areas.　For that purpose, it is necessary to present the amount of damage at an early stage.　This requires estimates of the damage to capital stock and impacts on production based on limited damage information, but methods have not been established.

　　In this study, after a disaster occurred, the damage to private capital stock was estimated using data released by the disaster response headquarters, housing damage data and geographic information of flooded areas.　Next, the Cobb-Douglas production function was used to estimate the decrease in sales based on the capital stock damage by prefecture and industry.　Damage to private capital stock was determined according to the industrial composition of the flooded area and the number of employees.　In addition, the actual decrease in sales could be estimated by using the production function according to the industrial characteristics of the prefecture.　These estimates are based on general-purpose statistics and can be used even in the event of a disaster in another area.

JEL Classifications:D24, E22, H84, O15, R11