地域経済のシミュレーシヨン分析

抄録

Attempting econometric research on the Regional Development planning for the Hanshin (Osaka-Kobe) Metropolitan Region (in 1962), we constructed a empirical model of the regional economy of the Hanshin Metropolitan Region. In this paper, we try to grasp quantitatively structural properties of the regional economy by means of the regional impact multipliers formulated in the above model and some of dynamic characteristics by a method of simulation analysis.
Variables and their notations in our model are given as follows.
(1) Endogeneous variables (14 in all)
(unit: million yen in terms of 1955 price.)
(Subscript t for each variable means
“at the tth year”.)
Y_t=net regional income in terms of production in the Hanshin Region. (The word “the Hanshin” will be dropped for brevity below. Therefore, “the regional” data or variable represents the data or variable of the “Hanshin region”.)
C_t=regional consumption.
I^EQ_t=regional net investment for producer's durable or equipment.
I^DW_t=regional net investment for dwellings.
J_t=regional inventory investment.
X_t=regional foreign exports.
E_t=regional foreign imports.
T_t=net balance of the trade between the Hanshin and the other regions.
D_t=regional depreciation.
G_t=regional government expenditure (local and central).
R_t=regional corporate income.
O_t=total regional gross output in manufacturing industry.
S_t=regional shipment by the manufacturing industry.
F_t=indirect tax collexted in the region.
(2) Pre-determined variables (3 in all)
S_t-1, C_t-1, O_t-1.
(3) Exogeneous varibables (3 in all)
G^N_t=national government expenditure.
I^DWN_t=investment for dwellings in the nation.
I^EQN_t=net investment for producer's durables or equipment in the nation.